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nationalism will raise the cost of doing business in Thailand,” Assoc Prof Pavida warned.Despite favourable responses from local and foreign investors, the NCPO is likely to face big challenges in the mid and long term, such as rice subsidy demands from farmers next year and the execution of projects the NCPO promised to develop in its 2 trillion baht infrastructure budget, such as dual-track train and water management projects. Another problem is that the current economic conditions aren’t favourable for the NCPO.“While growth held up well after the 2006 coup, it [Thailand’s economy] is already much weaker now so the consequences this time around will be more negative,” Dunn urged.The question is whether the NCPO can solve the chronic under- performance of the Thai economy. Mr Dunn stressed that “structural dysfunctionality” has been built into the Thai economy by years of “superficial populism” and neglect of Thailand’s labour force. So his wish is for the NCPO to improve the conditions of both the migrant and local labour force.“The government can legitimize and take care of this migrant labour force by offering housing and stronger rights of residence. And that would be a big improvement.” For local labour, Mr Dunn warned that Thailand risked creating a large underclass of insufficiently skilled and motivated Thai workers unless it tackles issues such as labour mobility and profes- sional training in the medium term. “That may require the creation of a proper, sustainable social security network, not just a revamp of the tax system,” he said.Mr Kent said he wished to see major structural reforms, such as with a land tax. Property tax has been in“In short, we will see government under military control for a while. But what will happen if the Democrat Party cannot adjust itself into an electable political party and Thaksin’s clan returns in the next election?”place before, and many governments have toyed with the idea but none have pushed the envelope. For Mr Kent, it is time that Thailand collected tax from land owners and used the money for social security, such as for much-needed pensions and upgrading of the labour force. He also stressed the need for Thailand to establish an “infrastructure fund” like that in Singapore or South Korea, to invest in rail and transportation networks that will improve the way people do business, live and migrate.Assoc Prof Pavida, however, seemed to have a more grim picture for Thailand. She believes it is better for the NCPO to give a time frame forwhen it will exit. An even greater worry is what will happen in Thailand in the post-NCPO era.“The country needs stability but we will not see long-term stability from the coup. We should stop hoping for short-cuts and learn to live with the system.“In short, we will see government under military control for a while. But what will happen if the Democrat Party cannot adjust itself into an electable political party and Thaksin’s clan returns in the next election? If that happens, the opportunity for Thailand will go down again.”Elite+ 19