Page 31 - ELITE PLUS MAGAZINE VOL8

the country. Political activists and movement leaders, the main active voices to the outside world, were often imprisoned. It wasn’t long ago that the idea of an election in Myanmar seemed impossible.The prospect seemed to improve with a new constitution and “roadmap to democracy” approved in 2008, followed by the general election two years later. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, however, boycotted the election, which they considered to be controlled.The new elections on November 8 will be the real test as to whether a representational government can be established. There have been serious problems in the three years since a crucial by-election in 2012. A ban on Aung San Suu Kyi being president is also written in the military draft, even if her NLD wins by a landslide.Aung Zaw, founder and editor of Irrawaddy magazine, an alternative news source to government mouth- pieces under military rule, believes the upcoming election will bring in some changes, while real reform is still far away.“We have to be optimistic,” he said. “After the election on November 8, two months from then we will have a new government body. And in February, there will be the selection of the president and vice-president. In March, the new government will fully take over. That is a scenario that is considered a happy ending for Myanmar. But that will never happen.“We have to really manage our optimism, and remain sceptical of this whole process. Why? Because since I was allowed to go back to Myanmar in 2012, after living in exile for 20 years, I’ve realized that the military will never give in and they will stay in power. They know how to manipulate not only domestic but international opinion. And they do it very well.“I think reform is a total illusion.I know they have promised to aid this reform and have placed Aung San Suu Kyi in [parliament], but it is not going to happen. After they released thousands of political prisoners, now the prison is filled up again with political prisoners and up to 150 student activists. Another worrying thing is the rise of the 969 religious movement. I keep telling friends that it is manipulated and engineered, and there is a dark arrangement behind it.“I spoke to a lot of activists and their mood towards the election has changed. No one knows if this will be a smooth transition, but it’s refreshing to see reforms [at all]. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, current commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces, gave an interview with the BBC, and he too became ambiguous about his future role in Myanmar politics, because there are still other players that are still very powerful, especially PresidentThein Sein.“The election day is not soimportant, but the post-election time is and it will be more intense and political negotiations will take place. Because if the opposition party wins by a landslide, the other side will have to compromise. Aung San Suu Kyi cannot become president, and there will be a lot of juggling around to indirectly choose the president and vice-president.“Also, don’t forget that Myanmar people have not had a proper election for a very long time. They are not election literate and don’t know what they can do within their constitutional rights. Forty per cent of the people think that with this election they can choose the president directly, which is not the case. So besides military rule, there are still a lot of problems to comprehend the whole process.”Elite+ 29