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and technology are holding the country back.This does not apply to all Thai companies. Some large Thai companies are strengthening and expanding overseas despite the downturn. It is the first time since 1970 that Thai firms – mainly large conglomerates such as Charoen Pokphand, TUF or energy firms such as ECCO and PTT – are expanding their investment and production bases abroad, especially in ASEAN.“And that is good because it makes them develop and become more competitive,” Assoc Prof Pavida said, “but what I am afraid of is what we are going to do with our small and medium enterprises that are still not that strong.”Despite the gloomy prognosis, the experts believe Thailand’s geographic location, emerging middle class and influx of foreign workers from the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) from next year will save the withering economy.Mr Atikrai, who once worked with local energy company Padaeng Industry, believes the next frontier of Thai investment and business will be in the Mekong region, where investors can access a larger pool of potential consumers such as among the rising middle class in Vietnam, which has an appetite to consume and have what the Thai middle class has. “The landscape for investment now extends beyond Thai consumers,” he said.First the government must solve more immediate problems. According to Mr Gisbourne, Thailand needs to keep foreign manufacturers from moving to the Philippines and Indonesia. “Foreign Direct Investment is going to be shared, but Thailand still has an opportunity provided by the sheer luck of geography,” he said.The way to capitalise on thecountry’s location is by investing in infrastructure, such as railway links to help it become a logistics hub for the region.To recover and grow sustainably, Mr Zachau urges Thailand to solve problems in its social fabric. A progressive tax is necessary to collect funds from the wealthy and create greater equality, along with a policy of diverting tax to improve education and health care. In terms of infrastructure, Thailand needs to expand internet bandwidth to make the internet faster and more accessible. Investing in transportation in urban areas is necessary, as it will help improve efficiency, reduce energy costs and attract foreign labour.“Yes, Thailand is losing some ground,” Mr Zachau said. “But fundamentally Thailand has a good range in terms of places to do business.”The latest World Bank assessment places Thailand 26th out of 100 countries to do business in. Despite sagging industrial exports, Thailand can turn to logistics and telecommu- nications to enhance its geographical competitiveness. Another area where Thailand can improve is in renewable efficiency, such as green energy and green modes of transport. With greater social equality, social welfare and greener, cleaner energy, Mr Zachau has a vision of Thailand as hub of the AEC and a land of opportunity for foreign workers.“To reach that scenario, Thailand needs to be more liberal and let foreign professions move in,” he said. “But that requires determination and political will.”Elite+ 33