Page 17 - ELITE PLUS MAGAZINE VOL9

REENERGIZINGTHE THAI ECONOMYGrowth has sputtered to a halt and without structural reforms the Kingdom’s financial prospects are bleak; Kobsak Pootrakul of Bangkok Bank, however,also sees opportunities in the downturnThe dire economic situation will remainas it is for two or three years. What we need to do is not panic. We need to let cool heads prevail, and understand all the factors. Then we can make a sound decision that will carry us out of the crisisIf not told that Kobsak Pootrakul, the baby-faced executive vice-president of Bangkok Bank, was an economist, we might judge from his descriptive eloquence that he was a man of letters.“If Thailand’s economy were a dam, it would be a dam that has run dry. If it were a car, it would be an old and ageing car that has run out of petrol.”It is a vivid prognosis that brings home the breadth and depth of Thailand’s grim economic situation. Mr Kobsak was giving a “Wisdom in Crisis” speech in August at the anniversary party for Elite+.The economic growth rate remains at a halting 2%, the same as last year. China’s currency devaluation and sputtering stock market have driven the Stock Exchange of Thailand down for over a month. Exports have shrunk like a T-shirt after an overheated wash. Local consumption, which previously provided a cushion, no longer generates growth. Cash has evaporated for low-income earners such as farmers, while the middle-class are ridden with debt and overspending due to populist policies such as tax exemptions for first car and home purchases.“High-end spending will not keep the economy rolling for long,” said Mr Kobsak. “In the end, the upper crust will feel the pain because lack of local consumption will eventually cripple overall businesses.“When the coup d’etat took place in May last year, many investors believed they would see a V-shape, a rebounding of economic activities as people came out to spend money after months of political protests, like it was after the 2010 red-shirt protests.”Mr Kobsak was a member of the now defunct National Reform Council and Constitution Drafting Committee. As his work for those comes to an end, this rising star of the Thai economy can speak more freely about the Thai economy and his ideas for how to turn this ageing, sputtering jalopy into a powerful sports car.He asks people to be realistic and forget when Thailand’s growth rate was between 7 and 8%. “The dire economic situation will remain as it is for two or three years. What we need to do is not panic. We need to let cool heads prevail, and understand all the factors. Then we can make a sound decision that willElite+ 15