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carry us out of the crisis.”As a PhD recipient in economicsfrom the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and former staff member at the Bank of Thailand, Mr Kobsak has always had his eyes firmly on economic data. He has seen the ups and downs of times of prosperity and economic crisis. Yet the current downturn is deeply worrying, as it is not a product of an economic cycle. He likens the economy to a warrior who needs to fight against enemies coming from all directions. Within the country, local consumption, a growth engine that usually keeps the economy stable, is stagnant, affecting all businesses. Exports that provided a lifeline to the industrial sector keep contracting, and have dropped further in line with China’s economy.“It seems that the only sector that is working well at bringing cash into our economy is tourism,” he said.The number of tourist arrivals has risen 20% over last year. The bombing at Erawan Shrine might dampen tourism temporarily, but progress in the police investigation has helped confidence in the sector recover.The global economic downturn – especially ongoing problems with Greece’s debt and China’s currency devaluation – has had ramifications on Thailand’s business climate. But the most worrying aspect for Mr Kobsak is not the world economy, not low exports and local spending. The country’s economy is losing steam. For him, it resembles an “old and ageing company that has run out of new innovations and ideas to produce new products”.“Thailand cannot create rising- star industries like it once did,” he added. “In the late 1970s, we had the petrochemical industry, then we had automotive assembly. But what newrising industry do we have now?” There has been concern over foreign investors leaving the country to found factories in neighbouring countries, such as Samsung moving operations to Vietnam. Mr Kobsakoffers another perspective.“It is not that all foreign investorswill close factories and leave the country. Japan still has factories in Thailand, but those factories produce old models. So Thailand will remain an industrial base for foreign companies, but these factories will manufacture only outdated cheap goods, not premium products. Foreign innovators will open more advanced factories in other countries.”Falling behind in innovation will cripple the country’s economy in the long term. One way to solve this structural problem is to find rising new sectors and help these through conducive and sustainable policies,16 Elite+