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India, as the third largest country and fourth largest economy in the world, has for decades played an important role in world geopolitics to balance the superpower hegemony. In Asia, over the years, India has been a rival of China and had a bitter relationship over border disputes between the two countries.

However, China, India and other countries jointly advocate the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, which remain a basic norm of international relations. Today, as the "twin engines" of Asia's economic growth, key representatives of the Global South and members of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), BRICS and the G20, China and India share a mission to push the international order toward greater economic fairness.

Anyhow, the game is now changing when last week Trump hit India with an additional 25% tariff over its purchases of Russian oil, raising the total tariff on Indian imports to the US to 50% - among the highest rates imposed by Washington. This new rate came into effect on Wednesday, 27 Aug 272025.

On the following day, PM Modi hit back in response to being hit with a 50% tariff, announcing his visits to China and Japan which he said, “would further the country's national interests and priorities.” Currently, he is in China along with President Putin of Russia and many other national leaders for the SCO summit where discussions are expected on how to cooperate to battle Trump’s tariffs.

Amit Ranjan, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) at National University of Singapore (NUS), told CNA, “India and the US built ties for a long time, [and then] Trump imposed 50% tariffs, which is not what you’d expect from a friend.”

“This [puts] the Indian economy in a very difficult position and pushes the country to warm up ties with China,” he emphasised.

India’s strategic response to Trump’s bullying has been to reconcile with its rival neighbour in order to rely less on the U.S. market.

Hence, India and China’s interaction within existing mechanisms is now aimed at achieving mutual benefit and win-win outcomes, which is a natural phenomenon in the process of building a multipolar world with legitimate aspirations of emerging powers seeking a stronger voice.

PM Modi said that he was confident his visit to China would further their building fruitful cooperation in advancing regional and global peace, security and sustainable development. Experts have said this demonstrates that Trump’s pressure on the Modi government is precipitating an India-China rapprochement that will ultimately produce a big win for Beijing – particularly given the wedge that had been driven between India and China after border clashes in recent years.

It now appears that Trump’s unexpectedly tough approach to India has reversed decades of US cultivation of the South Asian giant as a democratic counterweight to China.

The warming of China-India relations is also closely related to profound changes in the global geopolitical landscape. Since the beginning of 2025, international turbulence has intensified. The protracted stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, mounting crises in the Middle East and major shifts in US domestic politics and foreign policy have all had far-reaching impacts on the global order.

In the meantime, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has travelled to China to attend the SCO Summit 2025 in Tianjin from 31 August to 1 September. This is the Indian prime minister's first visit to China in seven years and marks a shift in China-India relations from a period of diplomatic chill toward a slow but steady cycle of recovery. India's active participation in the SCO Tianjin Summit reflects its repositioning in the multilateral cooperation framework.

In recent months, a series of developments, from soldiers along the Himalayan border exchanging sweets to the resumption of Indian pilgrims travelling to Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region and the announcement that direct flights between the two countries could soon resume, all signal that the two countries are strengthening their diplomatic ties.

The current recovery phase of China-India relations is primarily driven by shared strategic needs. Since the Galwan Valley incident, both sides have consumed considerable resources in managing border tensions. Increasingly, both countries recognise that allocating limited resources to economic development and more pressing strategic priorities – rather than endless border disputes – is the more rational choice.

This month, India and China reached 10 points of consensus on their boundary question at a meeting of their foreign ministers as they work to maintain communication through diplomatic and military channels and avoid unnecessary friction.

In the context of the sluggish global economic recovery, both countries need a stable environment to promote domestic reforms and economic growth. In 2024, their bilateral trade reached USD 138.478 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year. Bilateral decisions to resume direct flights, streamline visa procedures, resume border trade and other measures indicate that economic and trade cooperation is on the rise.

Some political analysts have said that Modi's visit to China provides a rare window of opportunity for improving China-India relations. Observers note that the two major countries are now making efforts to manage their ties as "partners rather than rivals". While challenges remain in bilateral relations, both sides' willingness for pragmatic cooperation introduces a positive variable into global strategic balance.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “On the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India, it is hoped that New Delhi will earnestly implement the important consensus of the leaders of the two countries and write a new chapter of ‘the dragon and the elephant dancing together’ with a more open and inclusive mindset.” He hopes that together they make contributions as major countries to world peace, stability and prosperity.

In addition, Prime Minister Modi will go to meet Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba for talks in Tokyo following the SCO Summit to strengthen trade investment and defence cooperation while working to hedge against Trump's tariff threat as both countries are facing harsh pressure from the US.

This will be Modi's first trip to Japan since he attended the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima in 2023. Ishiba hopes Japan can benefit from the economic momentum of India, which has the world's largest population of more than 1.4 billion. It is hoped this meeting could lead to the creation of a new economic security framework designed to boost cooperation in areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, artificial intelligence and pharmaceuticals.

The two leaders also plan to set a new target of 10 trillion yen, or roughly USD 68 billion, for private-sector investment in India from Japan over the next decade or so.

They also now hope for mutual exchanges of over 500,000 people over the next five years, including 50,000 from India to Japan. A total of 11 outcome documents will be compiled, including a summit joint statement. These awill lso include a document on shared visions, which presents specific directions for the next 10 years in such fields as the environment, medicine and local-government exchanges.

India’s ambassador to Japan also hopes for greater cooperation with Japan on AI research and chips development.

It thus appears that new friendships and collaboration are in the cards as Trump keeps forcing countries that were once good friends and partners to become rivals in his economic and geopolitical gambling.

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